How Were Predicting The 2019 College Football Playoff

A handful of weeks into the 2019 season, we still don’t know much about how the College Football Playoff race will eventually play out. Twenty-four major-conference teams (so, the Power Five plus Notre Dame — more on the Irish later) are currently undefeated, and 29 more have only one loss. Although we may be headed for yet another Clemson-versus-Alabama rematch in the national title game, that’s not set in stone … yet.To help make sense of the postseason picture from this early stage of the season onward, we built a model that predicts every team’s chance of making the playoff and winning the national championship. You can read more about how it works here — and we’ve made some tweaks this year — or scroll on to see the current rankings and how they might change going forward.The usual suspects are indeed at the top of this year’s projections as well, with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Georgia forming the top 5 most likely playoff teams. And yes, the two most likely championship-game contestants are — you guessed it — Clemson (45 percent chance of making the title game) and Alabama (30 percent). Those odds imply that there is a 62 percent chance at least one of the Tigers and Crimson Tide make the playoff and a 14 percent chance we see yet another Clemson-Bama tilt in New Orleans next January.But that means there’s an 86 percent chance we don’t get Swinney-versus-Saban Part IV in the national title game. It’s still a wide-open battle. Our model currently gives 40 teams at least a 1 percent chance to make the playoff, 30 teams at least a 1 percent chance of making the title game and 21 teams at least a 1 percent chance of winning it all. Total† Chance to… * Difference in playoff odds is weighted by the chance of each outcome — win or lose — actually happening.† Total swing includes every game in the country — not just those listed here. TeamConf.RecordEloDanger week*Make PlayoffWin Title 8WisconsinBig Ten2-017079Ohio State153 39.4 17VirginiaACC3-017595Notre Dame51 Oklahoma36.7+0.6-1.00.7 Surveying the 2019 College Football Playoff raceChance of making the College Football Playoff and winning the national championship for teams with at least a 1 percent title probability 21Texas A&MSEC2-117867Alabama31 16IowaBig Ten3-0179911Wisconsin51 9Penn StateBig Ten3-0176313Ohio State112 15Oklahoma St.Big 123-0172814Oklahoma61 19TexasBig 122-117507Oklahoma41 18Wash. St.Pac-123-017529Oregon51 Naturally, both UGA and Notre Dame would see their playoff odds rise by quite a bit with victories (and fall with losses). But an Irish win would shake things up most of all — Notre Dame’s chance of making the playoff will improve by about 27 percentage points if it wins, and UGA’s will fall by about 16 points. That’s a pretty huge impact for a game this early in the season.But although UGA-Notre Dame is the biggest game of Week 4, most top contenders’ fates will potentially be sealed much later in the year. Among the top 5 teams in our championship odds, four of them (Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma) face their highest remaining chance of losing any given regular-season game in Week 14 — the final weekend before conference championships. (And even Georgia faces its most dangerous remaining regular-season opponent in Week 12 at Auburn, not this weekend against Notre Dame, in large part because UGA is at home against the Irish.)That means there will be plenty more drama to unfold as the season goes on. And you can use our playoff predictions to help follow it — and play with the implications of each game — every step along the way. 4Ohio StateBig Ten3-0192214Michigan338 Ohio State32.9+1.0-1.81.3 11OregonPac-122-116778Washington92 How Georgia-Notre Dame swings the playoff picturePotential changes in College Football Playoff probability for selected teams based on the outcome of the Sept. 21 Georgia-Notre Dame game 1ClemsonACC3-0204314S. Carolina75%25 6Notre DameInd.2-018614Georgia256 7LSUSEC3-0190211Alabama206 12AuburnSEC3-0183514Alabama82 TeamCurrent Playoff %WinsLosesWeighted Difference* Notre Dame24.9%-14.7+26.6+/-18.9 The big change we’ve added to the model this season involves one of those teams: Notre Dame. We believe we were systematically underrating the Fighting Irish’s chances of making the playoff in past seasons — as evidenced by the paltry 62 percent CFP probability we gave them heading into selection day last year. (They ended up making it, while a team we gave better odds to — Ohio State at 69 percent — missed out.)As an independent, Notre Dame was ineligible for the conference championship bonus in our model, which made its résumé look weaker in comparison with teams that had won their conferences. This year, however, we assign some fraction of the bonus to independents, based on their W-L record and how often the record tends to be enough to win a conference. That should help the Fighting Irish’s odds this year, provided they keep winning; if Notre Dame wins out, we give it a 97 percent chance of making the playoff.Of course, the biggest obstacle to that comes this weekend, when Georgia — an intriguing dark horse championship pick — hosts the Irish in a game that our model gives UGA a 65 percent chance of winning. This is by far the most important game of Week 4 in college football, with nearly 40 total points of playoff probability (across all FBS teams) riding on the outcome of the contest: Change in odds if Georgia… 3OklahomaBig 123-0185814Okla. St.378 Oregon9.1+0.5-0.90.7 Georgia26.7+8.9-16.111.4 Clemson74.8+1.1-1.91.4 13UtahPac-123-0171010Washington91 2AlabamaSEC3-0199614Auburn4618 5GeorgiaSEC3-0189412Auburn278 *A team’s most dangerous opponent is the team on its remaining schedule with the highest probability of beating it, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. 20WashingtonPac-122-117088Oregon41 10FloridaSEC3-019097LSU102 14MichiganBig Ten2-017694Wisconsin71 read more

Gadkari unveils Rs 50000 crore AP road projects

first_imgThe Centre is taking up road projects worth more than Rs 50,000 crore in Andhra Pradesh, including an Outer Ring Road (ORR) at Vijayawada, where the State’s new capital city is coming up.Announcing this here today, Union Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said these new schemes, which include 392 km of national highways, are in addition to similar projects worth more than Rs 15,000 crore which are already going on in the State ruled by TDP-BJP alliance. Also Read – Punjab on alert after release of excess water from Bhakra damHe was speaking after laying the foundation stone for a six-lane fly-over at the famous Kanaka Durga temple here and three other ventures.“The cost of new projects is Rs 50,560 crore. Already, work is going on projects worth Rs 15,000 crore. So, today, Rs 65,000 crore is to be given to the State of Andhra Pradesh from the federal Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modiji,” Gadkari said.He declared different road projects in AP as national highways. “Today, you are expecting some new announcement from me. A 180 km Outer Ring Road around Vijayawada will be built with tentative cost of Rs 20,000 crore.”last_img read more

Woman employed with IT firm molested in New Town

first_imgKolkata: An Information Technology (IT) employee was allegedly molested on Wednesday night while she was walking home from her office.The woman said she worked in an IT company, which is located near New Town police station. She lives with a few other IT professionals at a housing complex near Eco Space. On Wednesday night, around 8 pm, she was walking to home as her office was near her residence. When she crossed the island near Eco Space, she felt someone was following her. When she stopped and tried to look back, a man all of a sudden touched her inappropriately and fled from the spot. Also Read – Rs 13,000 crore investment to provide 2 lakh jobs: MamataAs the area was deserted, she was not able to seek help from local residents. She somehow managed to run from the place and went to her residence. Later, she narrated the whole incident to her roommates. According to the woman, a few days ago, a man snatched one her roommates mobile phone in the same area at night when she was walking towards their residence. On Thursday, the woman lodged a complaint in this regard at the New Town police station. Based on the complaint, the police initiated a case under Section 354B (assault or use of criminal force to woman with intent to disrobe) of the Indian Penal Code. No one was arrested till Thursday night. According to residents of the housing complex, after 7 pm every night several persons are seen consuming alcohol and other narcotic substances in the area. Several residents of the housing faced problems while returning home.last_img read more

Former Webel MD no more

first_imgKolkata: Nandan Bhattacharya, former managing director of Webel passed away in the wee hours on Sunday.Bhattacharya was a visionary who crafted today’s Sector V popularly known as the IT Hub , the pride of Kolkata. He was instrumental in Bengal’s transition from Electronics to IT. The technocrat till his last days was a social worker and was a pillar of support for the challenged sector of the society. He is survived by his wife and two daughters. The body of Bhattacharya has been kept in Peace World. The last rites will be performed at Nimtala Crematorium around 11 am on Monday.last_img read more

Watch the exact moment a flight attendant realized their flight landed in

first_img Thursday, March 28, 2019 << Previous PostNext Post >> Watch the exact moment a flight attendant realized their flight landed in the wrong city Posted by Travelweek Group Tags: British Airways, Funnycenter_img Who likes my meme #BA3271 pic.twitter.com/a9RrNSde59— Scottish Traveller (@ScottishTravel3) March 25, 2019 I have fallen asleep, missed my stop and woken up at the end of the district line before. This morning I never expected to wake up from my Dusseldorf bound flight…in Edinburgh! @British_Airways #BritishAirways #BA3271— Peter James-Hamilton (@PJamesHamilton) March 25, 2019Even Edinburgh Airport had a few laughs, with a spokesperson saying: “We’re a welcoming airport that is always happy to greet visitors from all over the world to our fantastic city, but this was a surprise for us as well as them! We were happy to work with the various teams across the airport to help make the trip to Edinburgh a pleasurable, albeit short, one.”More news:  Can you guess the one and only hotel company to rank on Indeed’s Top Workplaces in Canada list?A spokesman for WDL Aviation said that the airline is working closely with authorities to investigate how the mix-up of flight schedules occurred. The spokesperson also confirmed that the airline will be contacting each customer individually to apologize. EDINBURGH — Passengers onboard a recent flight from London to Dusseldorf first noticed something was off when they heard a cheery “welcome to Edinburgh” over the PA system.Edinburgh? As in Scotland? As in a totally different country from Germany?!Turns out the British Airways flight, which was being operated by German-based WDL Aviation on a lease agreement, mistakenly landed 500 miles away in the Scottish capital after the pilot was given an incorrect flight plan.The flight attendant onboard made light of the situation, calling out over the PA system, “Holy schmoly! No one to Edinburgh? No one to Edinburgh?”He also jokingly asked passengers to not make photos or videos, knowing full well the mix-up would instantly go viral on social media.Of course, unbeknownst to him, the flight attendant’s announcement was already being videotaped by a passenger. In the video, he’s also heard saying, “We apologize about that, we don’t know where the problem is. But it has happened and we do the best to bring you as soon as possible to Dusseldorf.”More news:  Virgin Voyages de-activates Quebec accounts at FirstMates agent portalAfter refueling in Edinburgh, the plane once again took off for Dusseldorf at 10:30 a.m. The flying-faux-pas ended up adding an additional one hour and 20 minutes to the total flight time.To their credit, most of the passengers onboard found the whole thing hilarious. Once the story went viral, people around the world took to Twitter to poke fun at the situation.Irwell Johnson tweeted in support of BA implementing ‘mystery’ plane tickets as a permanent feature: “I think it would be fab if you could buy a mystery lottery plane ticket. A weekend return, hand luggage only. You only find out where you’re going when you get there.”I think it would be fab if you could buy a mystery lottery plane ticket. A weekend return, hand luggage only. You only find out where you’re going when you get there.Cool AF.BBC News – BA flight lands in Edinburgh instead of Düsseldorf by mistakehttps://t.co/0yvoO57cbI— Irwell Johnson (@IrwellJohnson) March 25, 2019 Sharelast_img read more